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Nov 2, 2012
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they've got to come back to the polls. the indications are they will, but we don't know for sure. >> and the that is the whole point of the obama turnout operation that has been in place now for four years. the state director, greg schultz, has been on the ground in ohio since the last campaign, the last presidential campaign in 20308, putting together this big network of 2008 voters. they're doing a pretty good job and they're feeling very good about this state. going back to the point about sandy, the local tv coverage that we've seen here has been positive for president obama, not just for some of the events he's had here. bill clinton was here yesterday. but the coverage of sandy has been positive for the president. even on local television, as i had mentioned, the coverage is relative lly positive for president obama. >> thanks to both of you who have been on the ground in ohio. back to the final jobs report, let's talk about that. the economy adding a better than expected 171,000 jobs in october. but the unemployment
they've got to come back to the polls. the indications are they will, but we don't know for sure. >> and the that is the whole point of the obama turnout operation that has been in place now for four years. the state director, greg schultz, has been on the ground in ohio since the last campaign, the last presidential campaign in 20308, putting together this big network of 2008 voters. they're doing a pretty good job and they're feeling very good about this state. going back to the point...
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Nov 1, 2012
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our poll gives the path six-point lead in iowa. obama three points ahead in wisconsin. that is within the margin of error. two in new hampshire. again, within the margin of error there. the 2% difference. the president at 49% in all three of these states. this after a poll yesterday had him five points ahead in ohio. is there any way for mitt romney to overcome this fire wall that seems to be pretty firm in president obama's favor? >> yes, if the polls are wrong. most of these polls are likely voter models. the polls are making the assumption with the turnout, what the shape of the electorate is going to be on election day. if that model is wrong, you have a major problem. you could have more republicans turning out and fewer democrats turning out. if the demographics are wrong, the same thing. this has been a very difficult -- i'm going to be honest, a very difficult election for me to get a handle on because you see this continuing schism between the national polls which show a tied race or a small, narrow romney lead in the key battlegrounds where you can show presid
our poll gives the path six-point lead in iowa. obama three points ahead in wisconsin. that is within the margin of error. two in new hampshire. again, within the margin of error there. the 2% difference. the president at 49% in all three of these states. this after a poll yesterday had him five points ahead in ohio. is there any way for mitt romney to overcome this fire wall that seems to be pretty firm in president obama's favor? >> yes, if the polls are wrong. most of these polls are...
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Nov 3, 2012
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that helps explain why even when president obama's poll numbers after that denver debate, they were looking a little shaky. they held up pretty well in ohio. you look at it and think, that has got to be the auto rescue. >> the latest nbc marist poll is showing that the president is holding a fairly sizeable lead in ohio, about six points at this point. most folks are indicating that's because he has a better margin with white male voters in ohio than he does anywhere else in the country at this time. that's probably related to the cars. i want to bring in ari melber for a moment. we were chatting about this before. this is one time when maybe progress sives are down with a corporation spending money on political ads. >> we have had a lot of talk about speech and corporate personhood and these interesting doctrinal questions. if you want to say corporations shouldn't have the free speech and spending rights that others have, you wouldn't have them able to come out and robustly engage in the political process. they are free under current law to speak close to an election which was restricted
that helps explain why even when president obama's poll numbers after that denver debate, they were looking a little shaky. they held up pretty well in ohio. you look at it and think, that has got to be the auto rescue. >> the latest nbc marist poll is showing that the president is holding a fairly sizeable lead in ohio, about six points at this point. most folks are indicating that's because he has a better margin with white male voters in ohio than he does anywhere else in the country...
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Nov 1, 2012
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and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses sacramento and sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our local schools... every school. for them. for all of us. vote yes on thirty-eight. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, and of course, pennsylvania. these three states haven't been given much time or attention by the media or the money spenders until lately. and that's because th
and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses...
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Oct 31, 2012
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the obama campaign tells me that he's consistently led two to four points in their internal polling. you might say it's spin, but these two campaigns are seeing very different data. >> do you trust these people that are giving you these numbers? are they just giving you numbers, or do you really believe them? which of these people are the most credible when it comes to numbers when you match them up against other evidence? >> one of the things that the romney campaign was suggesting, just about an hour ago on a conference call that they had, the romney pollster, neil newhouse, was saying that he doesn't buy some of these national polls, because he was just pointing out that the quinnipiac "new york times" poll, and said that was weighted more heavily toward registered voters than likely voters and thought that it sort of overshowed a little bit of enthusiasm for democrats, and i keep hearing this over and over again, from republicans, chris, and that is, they don't believe that obama voters will turn out as much as the obama campaign expects. these sides do believe very different thi
the obama campaign tells me that he's consistently led two to four points in their internal polling. you might say it's spin, but these two campaigns are seeing very different data. >> do you trust these people that are giving you these numbers? are they just giving you numbers, or do you really believe them? which of these people are the most credible when it comes to numbers when you match them up against other evidence? >> one of the things that the romney campaign was...
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Nov 3, 2012
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there were a slew of battleground state polls including in ohio that showed obama ahead. there did seem to be momentum that he had had. and i think most importantly when you actually look back at hurricane sandy, and of course we don't know how election night is going to turn out, but it did freeze the romney campaign in place. and there wasn't a lot of talk of mitt romney for two or three weeks. he was the candidate who had the momentum. he was beginning to make his closing argument. and then hurricane sandy hit, and it froze that. and then the campaign began just a couple of days later. >> which is interesting, marc, because you often hear, and i want all of you to comment on this. any sport they say you don't want to peak too soon. with the unknown variable of the storm allowing the president to peak at this time, you do wonder without sandy, where would this race be tonight? >> you mean this is like one of the football games where the last team with the ball wins essentially? >> well, the overtime stats, the person with the first touch on the ball wins most of the tim
there were a slew of battleground state polls including in ohio that showed obama ahead. there did seem to be momentum that he had had. and i think most importantly when you actually look back at hurricane sandy, and of course we don't know how election night is going to turn out, but it did freeze the romney campaign in place. and there wasn't a lot of talk of mitt romney for two or three weeks. he was the candidate who had the momentum. he was beginning to make his closing argument. and then...
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Oct 31, 2012
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so another ppp poll just posted and a wisconsin poll shows barack obama leading mitt romney 51% to 46%, a five-point lead. we certainly have seen that in the midwest states. the breaking news -- to recap, if mitt romney wins either minnesota, michigan, or pennsylvania, come on "morning joe" and shave it. you can shave it. i'm not going to touch it. and if barack obama wins florida or north carolina, i will grow on "morning joe." >> ever had a mustache? >> i will get a guitar out and i will sing. >> have you ever had a mustache? >> no. >> and what happens in my mind right now -- >> we can glue david's mustache on your face. >> okay. >> david axelrod, it's been disgusting. >> it's grow your own. >> i'll talk to you later. thanks. up next -- >> thank you, david. >> patricia cornwell joins us. keep it here on "morning joe." or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate comb
so another ppp poll just posted and a wisconsin poll shows barack obama leading mitt romney 51% to 46%, a five-point lead. we certainly have seen that in the midwest states. the breaking news -- to recap, if mitt romney wins either minnesota, michigan, or pennsylvania, come on "morning joe" and shave it. you can shave it. i'm not going to touch it. and if barack obama wins florida or north carolina, i will grow on "morning joe." >> ever had a mustache? >> i will...
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Oct 29, 2012
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>> this latest poll shows that 73% of latinos trust obama and the democrats to improve the economic situation. so the economy is the number one concern for latinos, and it has been for a long part of this campaign. they just do not buy the smaller government argument, and we know this from years of polling. latinos in general prefer a more active government, especially when it comes to health care, especially in terms of medicaid. so here latinos are not voting for the democrats for that one single issue for immigration. it's he economically driven like it is for the rest of lakt ra electorate. >> you talked about the battleground states. the president won the hispanic vote by about 2:1 in 2008. >> in florida its going to be really interesting to see bought of the diversity of the latino population there. it's not just the cuban base in south florida. since 2000 there's a booming population of puerto ricans in south florida. they're going to want to cast their ballot and show they have the clout in central florida, and it's not just concentrated down in miami. >> how much do you think the pre
>> this latest poll shows that 73% of latinos trust obama and the democrats to improve the economic situation. so the economy is the number one concern for latinos, and it has been for a long part of this campaign. they just do not buy the smaller government argument, and we know this from years of polling. latinos in general prefer a more active government, especially when it comes to health care, especially in terms of medicaid. so here latinos are not voting for the democrats for that...
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Nov 2, 2012
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, lean obama at the end of the september. we have seen absolutely no reason to change it. we see absolutely no reason to change it now. sometimes groups at rates overreact to a single private tracking number that may be shared by a campaign. as far as i'm concerned, while private trackings are good, many of the public polls are equally good. and under treat a private tracking number from a campaign or a polling source exactly the same as you would a public poll with a responsible sponsor. so i don't react as strongly as some people do to a private tracking number. >> one place where the obama campaign is not letting up yet is -- they sent bill clinton there today. this is him earlier this morning. >> i hear all these people say, oh, i was so enthusiastic four years ago. i had so much hope for change. and i'm disappointed. let me tell you something, i may be the only person in america, but i am far more enthusiastic about president obama this time than i was four years ago. >> larry, so on your map, you have florida as leaning
, lean obama at the end of the september. we have seen absolutely no reason to change it. we see absolutely no reason to change it now. sometimes groups at rates overreact to a single private tracking number that may be shared by a campaign. as far as i'm concerned, while private trackings are good, many of the public polls are equally good. and under treat a private tracking number from a campaign or a polling source exactly the same as you would a public poll with a responsible sponsor. so i...
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Nov 4, 2012
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>> the fact that obama was against the war in iraq, the fact that he was an outsider, not an insider. the fact that he was a conciliator and not a divisive figure. he was clearly the remedy to what people felt was wrong, more so than hillary at the time, who was much more of an establishment candidate. >> to get to the head of the pack, obama focused on building a first class ground campaign, especially in the outlying caucus states. >> you're cleaning and you've got my button on. you know when i said, yes, we can, i didn't mean dusting. >> he used social media better than the other campaigns to create a network of the young, excited, and savvy. >> i'm with students for barack obama. >> obama's appeal to the under-30 crowd was one of his biggest assets. >> obama's so amazing. heard his speech. >> the youngest and by far the coolest candidate in the race, he almost seemed to be one of them. >> i'm ready. actor kal penn joined the campaign early on in iowa after hearing obama speak at a los angeles fund-raiser. >> to me, what was most inspiring was not his race or ethisity but the fact
>> the fact that obama was against the war in iraq, the fact that he was an outsider, not an insider. the fact that he was a conciliator and not a divisive figure. he was clearly the remedy to what people felt was wrong, more so than hillary at the time, who was much more of an establishment candidate. >> to get to the head of the pack, obama focused on building a first class ground campaign, especially in the outlying caucus states. >> you're cleaning and you've got my button...
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Oct 28, 2012
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right now polls show that in key states like ohio, president obama leads mitt romney 2:1 or 60% to 30% with early voters. remains to be seen what strategy will seal the deal and who will win this election. but come election day, it will be clear whether the right strategy was galvanize voters early, early, early, or just hope they show up on election day. let's go to our table of experts. we -- look, this is it. 2450es are the final days. this is serious politics. so what's happening here particularly among my strategists. is it about targeting 106 counties, is it about early, early, swing voters, what is the winning strategy? >> what's going on is we have a gruff's race for ohio going on and barack obama and mitt romney are the candidates. we're dead in in terms of focusing in on specific counties because everyone's focused on ohio and i think to some degree candidates and people down at the county level in ohio may have better feel than some looking at polls and super pacs at the national level. >> we've been having a mike problem. but if you didn't hear out there, he's saying we hav
right now polls show that in key states like ohio, president obama leads mitt romney 2:1 or 60% to 30% with early voters. remains to be seen what strategy will seal the deal and who will win this election. but come election day, it will be clear whether the right strategy was galvanize voters early, early, early, or just hope they show up on election day. let's go to our table of experts. we -- look, this is it. 2450es are the final days. this is serious politics. so what's happening here...
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Nov 3, 2012
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president obama with a narrow lead in florida where the race stands at 49% to 47% among likely voters. we'll be talking more about ohio and the republican freak-out over polling analysis later in the program. right now joining me at the table we have michael moynihan cultural editor for "newsweek" and the daily beast ale li beei stevenson, columnist for "bloomberg view" associate professor at the ford school university of michigan and former chief economist at the obama labor department, and mom to the 3-week-old oliver, congratulations, that's really awesome. all right, it has been five days since sandy came ashore on the east coast as a post-tropical cyclone, the exact location of landfall didn't much matter because it was a 1,000-mile wide storm. at least 109 people are said to have died in the u.s. and another 60 were killed in the caribbean. as of this morning 2.9 million customers remain without power across 15 states and the washington, d.c. the economic losses are nearing $50 billion. flooding of new york subways and commuter train tunnels and loss of business accounts for muc
president obama with a narrow lead in florida where the race stands at 49% to 47% among likely voters. we'll be talking more about ohio and the republican freak-out over polling analysis later in the program. right now joining me at the table we have michael moynihan cultural editor for "newsweek" and the daily beast ale li beei stevenson, columnist for "bloomberg view" associate professor at the ford school university of michigan and former chief economist at the obama...